The India Meteorological Department (IMD), ahead of its second stage monsoon forecast has predicted that with reduced chances of La Nina weather event, the monsoon rainfall this year is likely to be normal and not 'above normal', even though monsoon rains in India were 4 percent below average in the last one week.
IMD in its second stage forecast issued in June had forecast the average rainfall to be 106% of the normal monsoon rainfall of 89 mm (with +/-4% model error). The July climate outlook issued by IMD's Regional Climate Centre for south Asia expects July, August, September rainfall over India to be more than 100% of the normal rainfall but not above normal 104% to 110%, as forecasted by the IMD.
The experimental Climate Forecast System (CFS) model of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) too indicated slight reduction in rainfall during August, September based on the initial conditions of June as compared to its forecast based on initial conditions of May. The Australian weather office has also said that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has strengthened in recent weeks and there are only 50% chances of La Nina. A negative IOD can decrease rainfall over India while La Nina event normally helps rainfall over the Indian sub-continent.
However, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), August and September rainfall are still expected to be 'reasonably okay'. "It will help fill up reservoirs by September end. Meanwhile, CRISIL in its latest report stated that there is still risk of excess rains and a good spread of rains over time and region in August can help increase GDP growth rate to 7.9% in FY 17. It also expects agriculture to grow by 4 per cent and consumer price inflation to be restricted to 5 per cent in 2016-2017.