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Bond yields trade range-bound with negative bias on building rate cut expectation

10 Apr 2012 Evaluate

Bond yields were trading range bound with negative bias tracking lower US Treasury yields and a build-up of rate cut expectations. Market participants for this would be keenly waiting for the February factory output data on Thursday and March inflation data, which would be key prints for providing cues on central bank’s stance in its Annual monetary policy review on April 17, 2012.

The Reserve Bank of India will review monetary policy on April 17 with an increasing majority of market participants expecting the central bank to begin cutting interest rates after raising them 13 times between March 2010 and October 2011. It has already lowered the cash reserve ratio by a cumulative 125 basis points.

Additionally, signs of an easing cash shortage at banks also have spurred demand for bonds. However, supply side concerns would continue to remain valid, thereby providing a lid to the surge of the bond prices.

On the global front, US Treasury debt prices rose on Monday, driving long yields to a four-week low, after a disappointing US payrolls report reignited economic concerns and raised bets on extra easing measures by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, Brent crude futures slipped towards $122 on Tuesday as a steeper than expected fall in China's overall imports in March raised concerns about oil demand growth in the world's second-biggest consumer.

Back on the home turf, the yields on 10-year benchmark 8.79% - 2021 bonds were trading lower 1 basis point at 8.62% from its previous close of 8.63% on Monday.

The benchmark five-year interest rate swaps were trading at 7.54% from Monday's close of 7.51%.

The Reserve Bank of India has announced the auction of 91-day and 182-day Government of India Treasury Bills for notified amount of Rs 9,000 crore and Rs 5,000 crore respectively. The auction will be conducted on April 11, 2012 using 'Multiple Price Auction' method.

Also, Government of India have announced the sale of four dated securities for Rs 15,000 crore on April 13, 2012, that include, (i) “8.24 percent Government Stock 2018” for a notified amount of Rs 4,000 crore (nominal) through price based auction, (ii) “8.79 percent Government Stock 2021” for a notified amount of Rs 7,000 crore (nominal) through price based auction (iii) “8.28 percent Government Stock 2027” for a notified amount of Rs 2,000 crore (nominal) through price based auction and (iv) “8.33 percent Government Stock 2036” for a notified amount of Rs 2,000 crore (nominal) through price based auction.

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Bond yields trade range-bound with negative bias on building rate cut expectation

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