Markets to start the penultimate session of F&O expiry on a cautious note

24 Aug 2016 Evaluate

The Indian markets despite a volatile trade managed a positive close in last session. Today on the penultimate session of F&O series expiry, the start is likely to be cautious but in green, taking cues from the global markets. Traders will be getting some encouragement with rating agency Ind-Ra revising India's economic growth forecast to 7.8 percent for the ongoing fiscal on better monsoon. It has said the positive impact of monsoon on agriculture will support the overall GDP growth with its backward and forward linkages. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said that India's progress is incomplete without rapid expansion and upgradation of basic infrastructure. The Prime Minister underlined that the India story is also about resilience. 'When the world economy is weakening and slowing down, India is a ray of hope.' Also there are reports that India is renegotiating over a two-decade old tax treaty with Singapore and the revised protocol will take into account the concerns of both. There will be some buzz in coal and power stocks, as the Indian Railways has notified 8-14 per cent increase in freight rates for coal moved between 100 km and 700 km. However, for more than 700 km, freight rates have been cut by up to 13 per cent. It would also levy coal terminal surcharge at Rs 55 a tonne for loading and unloading for distances beyond 100 km. The IT sector stocks too will be in action with reports that despite a hefty hike in fees of US H-1B and L-1 visas, there has been no drop in number of applications from India and the country continues to be the highest recipient of H-1B visas. Indian citizens receive almost 70 percent of all the H-1B visas issued worldwide.

The US markets closed in green in last session after the Commerce Department reported an unexpected jump in new home sales in the month of July. The Asian markets have made a cautious start, with some indices trading marginally in green, though energy shares were under pressure in the region after the oil retreated.

Back home, after trading on a feeble note for most part of the session, Indian benchmark indices managed to negotiate a close in the green terrain, breaking the two session downtrend, as market participants showed renewed buying interests in information technology and Banking counters. Investors remained highly apprehensive in early part of trade amid weak Asian cues and fading hopes of rate cut after nomination of Urjit Patel as news RBI Governor, who is known for his hawkish view on inflation. Sentiment also remained edgy ahead of the expiry of the derivative contracts on Thursday and ahead of a widely anticipated speech by the Fed chief at the central bank’s annual meeting in Jackson Hole scheduled on August 26. However, there appeared some tentative recovery in investors’ sentiments in afternoon trades as the key indices tracked European equity markets which swiftly recuperated and surged after data that pointed to a gradual improvement in the region's economy. The Euro area composite output index combining both manufacturing and service sectors rose unexpectedly to a seven-month high of 53.3 in August from 53.2 in July. On the domestic front, sentiments got some support with President Pranab Mukherjee’s statement that Indian economy has revived and is poised to achieve a growth rate of 7.5 per cent in the next two years. Also, the NCAER's business confidence index (BCI) registered a sequential increase of 2.2 per cent in June quarter of 2016-17, mainly driven by improvement in perception about economic conditions and financial position of firms in the next six months. On the global front, Asian markets ended the session on mixed note, while European equities edged higher in early trade. Back home, the local benchmarks commenced the session on a cautious note tracking global cues with the Asian markets exhibiting mixed trend ahead of a widely anticipated speech by the Fed chief at the central bank’s annual meeting in Jackson Hole scheduled on Friday. During the final hour of the trade, the key gauges managed to gain some more traction and bounced into the positive terrain by the end of trade. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 4.67 points or 0.02% to 27990.21, while the CNX Nifty rose by 3.45 points or 0.04% to 8,632.60.

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