Domestic rating agency, Indian Credit Rating Agency (ICRA) in its latest report has estimated the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to remain flat at 7.2% in the June quarter 2016 under the Gross Value Added (GVA) calculation. This growth will be lower than the GDP notched up in the March quarter at 7.4%. Further, it stated that pick-up in the industrial sector will help offset the decline in service and agriculture and allied activities which will help the economy to grow, the estimation for pick-up in industrial growth is 7.1% in June 2016, up from 6.7% a year ago.
The report anticipates real manufacturing growth to improve to 8% from 7.3% a year ago, supporting a pick-up in industrial growth. Besides, it said that growth of power generation improved sharply to 9% from 2.3% a year ago, led by a pick-up in thermal electricity generation growth which jumped to 13% from a paltry 1% in the corresponding period last fiscal year. Further, it stated that corporate earnings for Q1 suggest the full impact of increase in commodity prices is yet to be felt in the current fiscal. As a result, earnings growth has been higher than revenue growth, and is also likely to have exceeded the volume trend revealed by the index of industrial production.
The rating agency also expects the pace of growth of agriculture, forestry and fishing to ease to 2.2% from 2.6%. This is despite the boost from aggregate rise in production of rabi crops (led by wheat) even after drought-like conditions that prevailed in Q1 over most parts of the country. Service sector growth is likely to report only 8.5% growth, down from 8.8% a year ago, following the moderation in expansion of bank deposits and credit and lead indicators of trade such as air cargo traffic and railway revenue from freight.
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