Increase in import duty, volatile prices likely to impact gold, silver imports in 2012

16 Apr 2012 Evaluate

Increase in import duty on gold and volatile prices of silver are expected to dip the demand for these metals leading to a fall in their imports this year. The Union Budget of 2012-13 has doubled the import tax on gold to 4% of value which will increase its prices leading to a fall in demand. It is expected that gold imports could fall by 38% to 600 tonnes in 2012. Silver imports are also likely to fall to 3,500-4,000 tonnes in 2012, down from 4,800 tonnes imported last year.

It is also feared that the slew of taxes on the bullion could revive smuggling routes and government revenues may fall on account of lower imports.  Investor interest in gold may decline globally due to rising risk appetite on the back of revival in the US economy. However, the yellow metal’s status as a safe haven, an asset diversification tool and a store of value still remains unshaken.

Even though import duty on the white metal have not changed, imports are likely to be affected by the volatile prices. India is the largest consumer of silver in the world but Indians are averse to steep and volatile changes in prices of silver, which could dent imports this year.

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