The country will require 10% surplus rainfall or more than 190 mm in month of September for 2016-17 to cover the deficit, as most part of India experienced a dry rainfall in month of August. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that the season's total rainfall from June 1 to August 31 was 3% below average at 693.1 mm, usually the country receives an average 890 mm of rainfall during the June-September monsoon.
IMD further said that there has been a decrease in rainfall over northwest and adjoining central India, indicating that the south west monsoon is withdrawing. Monthly rainfall in the country so far has been mixed, with a deficit of 11% in June, followed by a 7% excess in July and a 9% shortfall in August, the rainfall deficit in the month of August was 9% at 237.1mm. The country has had a shortfall of rain in the month of August since 2013. The country receives the maximum rainfall in the months of July and August, before the monsoon starts retreating from west Rajasthan in the first week of September.
According to IMD, this year's monsoon would be above average, after two consecutive years of deficit rainfall. Based on this they stick to their prediction that rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the average, with a model error of ±4%. IMD further said that the country has been receiving good rains therefore heavy rains are not required as it will not be good for crops. IMD expected that heavy rains will continue four days to September 5, at few places in east northeast and south India, including West Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, coastal Karnataka and Kerala. Adequate monsoon rainfall is crucial in India, where more than half the farmland is dependent on rainfall for irrigation.