Global rating agency, Fitch Ratings in its latest report has said that after growing at a robust 7.8 percent in first quarter, India's fuel consumption growth is likely to moderate at around 5-6 per cent in the current fiscal, though the rating agency also expects the consumption growth for petroleum products to remain strong over the medium term.
It has stated that supported by robust passenger- vehicle sales amid low crude-oil prices there is expectation of strong gasoline (petrol) consumption growth of around 9-10 per cent over the medium term. It also expects that an improvement in India's GDP growth will likely boost demand for diesel.
The report stated that higher refining capacity will boost refining volume and meet rising demand for refined products in the next 12-18 months and expects GRMs to remain stronger than the historical average, which together with higher volumes is likely to support strong operating cash flow in FY2016-17.
Fitch expected high capex for all state-owned oil marketing companies (OMCs) - Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), over the medium term due to their plans to upgrade and expand refining capacity. It also said that there is unlikely to be any under-recoveries, as long as crude prices do not rally significantly from current levels. Regarding the downstream companies, Fitch expects their credit profiles to remain stable, despite large capex, supported by strong volume growth and relatively robust refining margins.
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