IMF lowers India's economic growth forecast to 6.9% in 2012

18 Apr 2012 Evaluate

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) has marginally reduced India’s growth rate for 2012 to 6.9% from the earlier 7%. The reduction has come in the wake of reducing global and domestic demand. It has pegged India's growth during the 2013 calendar year at 7.3% and for 2011 it was 7.2%.

On the other hand, as per the estimates of India's Central Statistical Organization (CSO), the growth rate during the financial year 2011-12 slipped to a 3-year low of 6.9%. While the government has projected a growth rate of 7.6% for the current financial year, which began on April 1, 2012, the Reserve Bank of India expects it to be 7.3%.

The global economy too is expected to witness a deceleration to 3.5% from 3.9% in 2011. As per the report, growth in advanced companies has improved even though it is slow. However, things still remain fragile in the Euro zone areas.

With regards to India the report states that structural bottlenecks like power, roads, railways etc. should be removed to strengthen the economy. Also governance and public service delivery should be enhanced to boost growth. The report also emphasized that government should strengthen policies to solidify the weak recovery and contain potential risks that can weigh on consumer and investor confidence.

Referring to the declining growth rate in India, the WEO said domestic factors have also contributed to the slowdown, as a deterioration in business sentiment weakened investment and policy tightening raised borrowing costs.  IMF believes that easing of monetary policy will remain constrained in countries like India where inflationary pressure exist. Also it expects the government to make fiscal consolidation a priority to meet future challenges.

After a gap of 3 years, India's Reserve Bank lowered the interest rates by 50 basis points thereby making credit cheaper. India Inc has been demanding easing of interest rates in view of slowing investments and slumping industrial output.

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