Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Manila-based lender in its latest report “Asian Development Outlook 2016 Update” has said that developing economies in Asia are holding steady and will grow at the earlier forecast rate of 5.7 percent this year and next, buoyed by resilience in the region’s two largest economies, China and India. The bank said that the region’s developing economies grew 5.9 percent in 2015, and the bank was retaining its March forecasts.
Regarding India, the report said that steady progress on reforms is helping India realize its growth targets, with earlier forecasts of 7.4 per cent growth in 2016 and 7.8 per cent in 2017 unchanged. For China’s economy -the second largest in the world - it said that it is forecast to grow by 6.6 percent in 2016 and 6.4 percent in 2017, or 0.1 percentage point more than was forecast in March, due to strong fiscal and monetary stimulus to boost domestic demand while external demand remains tepid.
The India forecasts take into account a boost in private consumption after recent wage and pension increases and expectations of a healthy monsoon lifting rural incomes. The report further stated that a recovery in private investment will help drive growth to 7.8 per cent in 2017.
However, the report also warned about climate-related risks to developing Asia like shorter rainy seasons, more withering drought and worsened pest and disease outbreaks, if uncontrolled, may lead to economic loss equivalent to 10 per cent of the region’s gross domestic product in 2010. The ADB also warned policymakers against any move towards protectionism which it said “would only undermine the recovery”.
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