The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest report has said that the implementation of goods and services tax (GST) bill will improve India's medium-term growth prospects. It added that as shown by India, progress on reforms could ignite business investment including already strong FDI inflows, further boosting domestic demand.
As per the report, India's growth has continued to benefit from the large improvement in the terms of trade, positive policy actions, including implementation of key structural reforms, gradual reduction of supply-side constraints, and a rebound in confidence. It added that monsoon rainfall coming in at normal levels which is good for agriculture and, along with a decennial rise in government employee salaries, will support the ongoing recovery in domestic demand. It noted that consumption growth has remained strong and activity in core industrial sectors has picked up and government consumption is set to continue to support growth in 2016.
According to IMF, greater labour market flexibility and product market competition remain essential to create jobs and raise growth. Priorities also include effective implementation of the new corporate debt restructuring mechanisms. Over the medium term, a number of Asian economies stand to benefit from a demographic dividend, as the working-age population in some economies like India and Indonesia continues to grow, potentially helping sustain strong potential growth.
In its report, the IMF stated that India's GDP growth is projected at 7.6 per cent in both 2016/17 fiscal year (ending in March 2017) and 2017/18 fiscal year, up 0.1 percentage point relative to the April 2016. It also stated that medium-term growth has been revised down to 5.8 per cent from 6.2 per cent, reflecting rising vulnerabilities and slower progress on reining in credit growth and on state- owned-enterprise reform.
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