India Inc likely to grow 7% in July-September 2016 quarter: Crisil

10 Oct 2016 Evaluate

Credit rating agency Crisil in its latest report on “Corporate Profitability: Review and Outlook” has said that due to the improvement in urban and rural consumption and falling global commodity prices, the profits of companies in the key sector such as automobiles, IT services, power, steel products, telecom services, pharmaceuticals and FMCG are likely to grow 7 per cent in the July-September quarter, as compared to the a marginal 2 per cent in the year ago period.

This will be the second best revenue growth in the last six quarters mainly on the back of low-base effect (revenue growth in the corresponding quarter last fiscal was stagnant), improvement in urban and rural consumption, and low commodity prices, though the report excludes banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) and oil companies.

As per the report, during the April-June quarter (Q1FY17), India Inc. reported 5 per cent year-on-year revenue growth, compared with stable revenue in the Q1 of FY16. Crisil estimates a 50 bps increase in operating margin (operating profit/ net sales) in the July-September quarter at 19.8 per cent, from 19.3 per cent in the year ago quarter. During the second quarter, automobile, steel products, telecom services and FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) firms are expected to record better operating margin compared with last year. On the other hand, firms in the IT services, power and pharmaceuticals are likely to witness a contraction in operating margin.

Rating agency sees automobile companies reporting 13 per cent growth on the back of new launches and healthy rural demand following a good monsoon. Retail is expected to grow 12 per cent on the back of improvement in disposable incomes and India’s economic outlook, while pharmaceuticals, driven by new launches in the US, is likely to see 13 per cent growth. IT services sector is expected to grow 10 per cent, slower than in the past, aided by volume and rupee depreciation. Consumer discretionary sectors such as airlines, cars and two-wheelers and retail are expected to grow faster than industry because of improved volumes.

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