Markets to make a soft-to-cautious start, TCS earnings eyed

13 Oct 2016 Evaluate

The Indian markets had managed a modestly positive close in last session before going for two days holiday. Today, the start is likely to be a bit soft-to-cautious tailing the mixed global cues. Traders will also be reacting to Industrial production data, which contracted once again for the month of August. IIP dipped 0.7 percent in August due to a slump in manufacturing and mining, in the manufacturing space, capital goods brought about the maximum fall. Traders however may get some support in latter trade with S&P Global Ratings, calling GST as the most important structural reform till date by the Modi government and stating that the passage of the indirect tax law gives it additional conviction of India clocking 8 percent growth in the next few years. Also, the Government's revenue collection in April to September -- the first half of the current fiscal -- saw indirect tax-mop up growing at an impressive 26 percent. The total direct and indirect tax collections at the end of September stood at Rs 7.35 lakh crore, almost half the Rs 16.26 lakh crore target for 2016-17. There will be some buzz in oil & gas sector, as Niti Aayog has shot down petroleum ministry’s demand for nearly Rs 10,000 crore of public money for building more strategic crude oil reserves as the proposal strays from the agreed plan to rope in private sector investments for crude storage beyond the existing 5 million tonnes. The gold and jewellery stocks too will be in action on report that exports of gems and jewellery grew by 11 percent to $ 14.43 billion during the first five months of the current fiscal, driven largely by demand in India's major markets like the US. Traders will also be eyeing the IT bellwether TCS earnings to be announced later in the day.

The US markets after a lackluster trade ended flat in the last session after the minutes of last month's monetary policy meeting revealed that members of the Fed were divided regarding the timing of further interest rate hikes. The Asian markets have made a mixed start though the Japanese market has rebounded as the yen weakened against dollar with Fed minutes of meeting reinforcing the case for an interest-rate increase in 2016.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks snapped the lackluster session with marginal gains on Monday, with Nifty recapturing its crucial 8,700 level, while Sensex ended just shy of 28,100 mark. Markets made a gap-up opening with credit rating agency Crisil in its latest report stating that revenues of companies in key sectors such as automobiles, IT services, power, steel products, telecom services, pharmaceuticals and FMCG are expected to grow 7 per cent in the July-September 2016 quarter, compared with a marginal 2 per cent in the year ago period. Traders also took some encouragement with NITI Aayog Vice-Chairman Arvind Panagariya’s statement that India can become a $ 10 trillion economy in the next 15 years, from the existing $ 2 trillion, like China did in last one and a half decade. Some support also came with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s statement that India is at the world’s centre stage more than ever before for ‘aspiring to do better in an adverse’ environment, though he also cautioned that by its own yardstick, the country’s current growth rate is not enough. However, market participants booked most of their gains during the trade ahead of macro data scheduled to be announced through the week starting with factory output numbers later in the day. Gains also remained capped with the World Bank’s new report stating that India, the world's largest remittance recipient in 2015, may receive a remittance of $ 65.5 billion this year, a drop of 5 percent due to weak economic growth in remittances-source countries and cyclic low oil prices. On the global front, European markets after weak start entered into green, while the Asian markets ended mixed. Closer home, appreciation in Indian rupee aided some sentiments. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 21.20 points or 0.08% to 28,082.34, while the CNX Nifty ended up by 11.20 points or 0.13% to 8,708.80.

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