India may see some important economic reforms like those in subsidies, deregulation of diesel and FDI in retail in the next six months, as per the chief economic advisor Kaushik Basu. However, the biggest reform GST (Goods and Services Tax) may not see the light of day as not everybody wants it to happen under the present regime.
Also there is a serious risk of another European crisis in 2014 and appropriate measures should to be taken to avert another global economic crisis. These comments have come in from Basu after he drew flak over his comments to a Washington based think tank a few days ago where he stated that no big ticket reforms were possible till 2014 elections.
Expanding on the subsidies reform, Basu has said that it is an important reform because the leakage in subsidies is substantial. In fact the leakage is so big that if authorities can cut this down, it will help cut down the fiscal deficit. Usage of the UID system can help curb the leakage to a great extent. There was no assurance given on FDI in multi-brand retail, but it has been stated that it is likely to happen.
On deregulating diesel prices, Basu is of the opinion that a total deregulation may not be possible as it is a politically sensitive issue. However, a partial deregulation is possible under which a small subsidy that is fixed per liter, is extended. This will not only partially shelter the consumer but will also allow the rise and fall of global price to be mirrored in India, which according to Basu, is essential for market efficiency.
Putting across an interesting reason for why GST is so difficult, Basu has observed that all parties realise that it is a very good reform and hence not everybody wants it to happen under the present regime.
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