Rural India has transitioned from agrarian economy: Credit Sussie

25 Apr 2012 Evaluate

Rural India has transitioned from thatched- roof houses and muddy roads to factories and cell phones, as per a study done by Credit Suisse. The findings of the study are not only interesting but also successfully change the perception of ‘rural’ India.

'Rural India, in our view, is no longer an agrarian economy exposed to the vicissitudes of an erratic monsoon. All agriculture is rural by definition, but the converse is no longer true,' says the report. It also states that agriculture in India is now much less dependent on the erratic Indian monsoon and has been linked to the national economic cycles to which it was more or less immune so far. Agriculture is now only about one-fourth of rural GDP - from being close to half a decade back.

The major change has been the increasing share of manufacturing and services in the rural GDP. Manufacturing GDP in rural India witnessed an 18 percent CAGR during 1999-09, and is now 55 percent of India's manufacturing GDP.

 In 1978, around 81 percent of rural males considered agriculture as their primary job. This ratio fell to 67 percent in FY05 and 55 percent in FY10. The trend is similar for female rural employment as well. Growth in services employment is equally robust.

Indian villages themselves are increasingly being classified as ‘towns’ based on their population density and employment characteristics, even though they do not have a municipal body. In the coming times it is expected that India's urbanization is likely to take a different path as compared to other emerging economies.

Consumption will continue to skew towards lower price points and ‘rural urbanization’ themes. The ‘new urban’ consumption categories like two-wheelers, building materials/paints, media, tobacco, footwear, healthcare, personal products with low price points (like toothpaste) are thus expected to see sustained growth due to the rapid development of the rural area.

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