Global rating agency, Standard and Poor's (S&P) has affirmed India’s sovereign rating for long term at 'BBB-' and short term at 'A-3' with stable outlook and ruled out any upgrade in two years, citing weak public finances. Ratings agency said that the stable outlook balances India's sound external position and inclusive policymaking tradition against the vulnerabilities stemming from its low per capita income and weak public finances. Further, outlook indicates that the agency does not expect to change its rating assigned to India this year or next, based on their current set of forecast.
According to the S&P, the upward pressure on the credit ratings could emerge if the government reforms markedly improve India's fiscal performance and pushes down the level of net general government debt below 60% of the gross domestic product (GDP). Currently, government debt amounts to about 69% of the GDP. Further, improvements in policymaking continue to strengthen and flagged wide fiscal deficits, a heavy debt burden and low per capita income as concerns.
On other hand, it said that downward pressure on the ratings could re-emerge if growth disappoints as a result of stalling reforms or if interest rate-setting monetary policy committee (MPC) does not achieve inflation targets. It added that a higher-than-expected deterioration in the nation's external liquidity position could also put downward pressure on ratings. The rating agency is expecting India's economy to grow 7.9% in 2016 with current account deficit (CAD) at 1.4% of the gross domestic product (GDP). It is also expecting that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) would meet its inflation target of 5% by March 2017. Earlier, in September 2014, it had upgraded India's rating to stable from negative.
The ratings agency also said that India's external position remains a credit strength and it has a floating exchange rate and limited reliance on external savings to fund the growth. Besides, the authorities also maintain contingent financing facilities of $68 billion through bilateral swaps and contingency reserve arrangements. The ‘BBB-’ rating indicates lowest investment grade rating.
MoneyWorks4Me is a SEBI-registered Investment Adviser (IA) dedicated to helping investors build long-term wealth through transparent, research-driven, conflict-free guidance. Founded in 2008, we started our journey as a Research Analyst (RA), providing deep fundamental analysis, intrinsic value insights, and long-term investing frameworks for Indian equities. In 2017, we transitioned to a full-fledged SEBI-registered Investment Adviser, strengthening our commitment to acting as a fiduciary—always putting the investor’s interest first.
To become India’s most trusted, research-powered fiduciary advisory platform—where every investor, regardless of experience, can make calm, confident, and well-reasoned investment decisions.
MoneyWorks4Me ensures this through: