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Indian economy likely to grow at 7.6% in 2016-17: NCAER

07 Nov 2016 Evaluate

India’s economic think-tank, National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) has pegged India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 7.6 percent for the fiscal year 2016-17, backed by pick-up in rural demand and positive signals’ on the manufacturing front. It said that the anticipated improvement in the agricultural sector and the associated increase in rural demand will push the economic growth upward.

NCAER said that the manufacturing sector is giving positive signals with Purchasers' Managers Index (PMI), Index of Industrial Production for core sectors and auto sales going up and the domestic aviation sector growth continues to be a robust. However, other service index indicators continue to be muted. Food inflation is also showing signs of dampening in the latter part of the second quarter. However, fuel inflation may revive. Although urban demand is predicted to remain strong, external demand continues to be volatile.

Economic think-tank estimated that the output of kharif food grains is expected to revive with an increase of 10 to 11 percent over last year's output of 124 million tonnes. It further said that India's fiscal position remained under stress during first half of the current fiscal. It added that despite healthy growth in tax revenues, the combination of rising expenditure and lower-than-expected non-tax revenues is likely to ‘test the government's resolve’ to abide by the fiscal deficit target set out in Budget 2016-17.

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