Markets to make a cautious but positive start

09 Nov 2016 Evaluate
The Indian markets extended the gaining streak despite a choppy trade in last session, after the latest polls suggested that Americans will probably elect Democrat Hillary Clinton as their next president. Today, the start is likely to be cautious and traders will also be reacting to the government’s historic decision to withdraw  Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes from circulation at midnight, saying this decision was taken to break the grip of corruption and black money. Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 “will not be legal tender from midnight tonight” and these will be “just worthless pieces of paper.”  RBI Governor Urjit Patel said that this step will help to put an end to the circulation of fake money and that they have increased the production of the new currency. Traders will also be eyeing the US Presidential Election and there will be lot of uncertainty till the results of the poll will be announced. Traders will be getting some support with news that a new and simpler portal for the incoming Goods and Services Tax regime went live on Tuesday that will enable easy filing of returns and tax payments through credit/debit cards and other modes. There will be lots of result announcements to keep the markets buzzing.

The US markets recovered from the early decline and managed a positive close on US Presidential Election Day. Wall Street sees the former secretary of state Hillary Clinton as leading in the US presidential election.  The Asian markets have made a mixed start, with some indices trading marginally in red, as early state exit polls in the US presidential election showed wins for both candidates and no clear trend as yet.

Back home, Indian benchmark indices carried forward their northbound journey for yet another session on Tuesday, as optimistic cues from across the globe helped the indices to close around crucial support levels of 8,550 and 27,600. It turned out to be a rather volatile day of trade as the indices rebounded after drifting to lower levels in the noon session, though sustained position build up was witnessed on hopes Hillary Clinton will beat Donald Trump in Tuesday's (November 8) presidential election but traders are cautious, with many opinion polls saying the race is too close to call. Global equities and risk assets surged on Monday after the FBI said it would not pursue criminal charges against Clinton over her use of a private email server while secretary of state. Clinton is considered by many investors to be a safer bet than Trump, who is seen as a loose cannon with policies many fear could wreck the world's top economy. On the domestic front, sentiments remained optimistic on the report that Retail inflation is expected to soften to 4.1 per cent in October and ease further to sub-4 per cent level by November-December, largely helped by favourable base effect. The report noted that the sequential increase in food index in October was largely led by higher prices of gram pulse, sugar and cooking oil, which were possibly due to increased festival demand for these key ingredients. Adding optimism among investors, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said that the Centre will step up on reforms to attract more investment and fill up infrastructure deficit. He also said that after seven decades of independence, India’s voice is increasingly getting noticed in the world, therefore to reform more, to open more, to attract more investment, to expand more in manufacturing, they need to fill up the infrastructure deficit faster than what they have been doing. Some support also came in from reports that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 311 crore on November 07, 2016. Meanwhile, a report has stated that GST benefits are likely to accrue over time rather than immediately, though in the long run the indirect tax regime will boost growth, lower costs and strengthen tax revenues. It added that it expects over time, as the GST council widens the tax net, minimises the tax slabs and lower the standard tax rates, the benefits will be substantial. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 132.15 points or 0.48% to 27591.14, while the CNX Nifty rose 46.50 points or 0.55% to 8,543.55.

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