Ratings agency, Care Ratings in its latest report has estimated that Goss domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to be affected by 0.3- 0.5 percent due to demonetization in the current fiscal. Recently, the government had decided to withdraw Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes from the circulation and introduced new Rs 500 and Rs 2,000 notes. Prior to governments this move, rating agency had estimated a GDP growth of 7.8 percent for 2016-17.
The report noted that this move is expected to have a significant effect on the economy, particularly on the GDP growth prospects as various sectors would tend to get affected differentially on this score. According to CARE Ratings services sector would be impacted most from the move, mainly on account of losses in trade, hotel and transport, among others, due to the volume of cash transactions involved in these economic activities. It added that these losses can’t be recovered in the next quarter due to their inherent nature. The agency also said that SMEs will have a major problem in adjusting production schedules as both payments and receipts flow are in cash given their structures.
For the manufacturing sector it said that demand side issues would exist till such time that conditions stabilise and could get reversed in the fourth quarter. Hence, Industry is also expected to be impacted which will be more significant in the first 2-3 weeks post the decision. In a positive note, the agency added that banking sector will gain from the move due to the increase in deposits, which will be somewhat countered by a slowdown in other sectors like real estate. Further it said that agriculture is expected to be least impacted with major shock being absorbed in the first 2-3 weeks itself as there have been issues in sales at mandis due to the current cash crunch.
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