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Icra estimates 40 bps dip in growth rates to 7.2% in Q2 of FY2017

22 Nov 2016 Evaluate

In view of the cascading impact of demonetization on the economy activity, domestic rating agency ICRA in its latest report has estimated 40 bps dip in economic growth rate of the country to 7.2 per cent in the second quarter of FY2017, as compared to 7.6 per cent projected earlier and also slightly lower than the year-ago period. Accordingly, the rating agency has also revised its forecasts for growth of GDP and GVA in FY2016-17, downward by 40 bps each to 7.5 per cent and 7.3 per cent, respectively from earlier forecasts of 7.9 per cent and 7.7 cent, respectively.
 
ICRA expects the boost to agriculture and allied activities from the near-normal monsoons to be neutralized by a decline in the growth of industry and services in the second quarter. Therefore, the pace of expansion of Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices is expected to ease slightly to 7.2 per cent in Q2 of FY2017 from 7.3 per cent each in Q2 FY2016 and Q1 FY2017.  It expects industrial growth to ease to 5.5 per cent in Q2 from 6.3 per cent a year ago, led by the manufacturing, mining and electricity sub-sectors.
 
The report further said that due to the demonetization drive, consumption-oriented sectors, mainly those involving large cash transactions, such as real estate, construction, jewellery, retail, travel and tourism and trade are likely to experience a lull in the short-term. Also, Cash-based transactions in the unorganized sector too are likely to get disrupted, mainly in rural areas.

Rating agency also noted that the GVA growth for the manufacturing sector has been significantly higher than the volume growth revealed by the IIP for several quarters, partly led by the decline in input costs for corporates in some sectors, reflecting lower commodity prices. It also expected that industrial growth to ease to 5.5 per cent in July-September as compared to 6.3 per cent a year ago, led by manufacturing, mining and electricity sub-sectors. Service sector growth too is expected to cool down to 8.7 per cent in Q2 from 9 per cent a year ago.
 

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