India likely to see a normal monsoon this year: Met Dept

27 Apr 2012 Evaluate

As per the Met Department, in all probability India will see a normal monsoon this year. In its first official forecast for the 2012 monsoon season, the Met has forecasted that this year between June and September rains will be around 99% of the Long Period Average (LPA).  However, there is a 24% probability of rains being below normal, while the chances of the country experiencing an above normal rainfall are 17%.

A monsoon is considered normal when rains are 96-104% of the LPA. The LPA is the average annual rainfall across the country in 50 years starting from 1941. It is estimated at 89 centimetres.

However there is also a chance that the El Nino could affect rainfall during the second half of the season. El Nino, an abnormal warming of waters in the equatorial tropical Pacific, is linked with poor rains or a drought-like situation in southeast Asia and Australia. In 2009, the El Nino weather pattern turned monsoon rains erratic, leading to the worst drought in nearly four decades.

Monsoon rains play a crucial role in India's farm output as 60% of the country's agricultural area depends on rainfall for irrigation. Agriculture accounts for about 15% of India’s GDP. A normal monsoon leads to the chances of a bumper crop and helps in controlling food inflation. India has of late been struggling with stubbornly high prices of food. Food inflation rose close to double digits in March from 6.07% in February and deflation in the previous month.

India is also the world’s second largest producer of rice, wheat and sugar and a bumper crop will lead to greater exports of these. It will also put some money in the hands of farmers and will help generate demand in the economy. The rural areas are today seen as major demand centres. Also when there is an increase in the incomes of people especially of the rural areas it leads to an increase in demand for gold and silver. Infact about 60-70% of gold demand comes from rural areas and a good harvest is expected to boost the appetite for the bullion.

A good monsoon also leads to a greater demand for seeds and fertilizers, benefitting companies producing these. Hence a good monsoon is not only important for agriculture but also for the economy at large.

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