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Despite demonetization, Indian economy to accelerate in FY2018: Fitch

28 Nov 2016 Evaluate

Amid the larger debate and different views on impact of demonetization on economy, the global rating agency ‘Fitch Ratings' has said that despite demonetization it expects India's GDP growth trend higher than China's in the medium term. It has projected Indian economy to accelerate in FY2018 on the back of reform implementation, monetary easing of the past year and infrastructure spending, while it said that in China a continued increase in leverage in the broader economy is more and more becoming a burden for growth. 

The rating agency has said that the long-term impact of demonetization will depend on the time taken to ease the shortage in currency notes. It also noted that the move will have a negative impact on growth in the short run but for the fiscal year as a whole decline would be relatively moderate. On the positive side, it said that the demonetization may improve the fiscal position to the extent more earnings would be declared and a transfer is possible from the RBI to the government of the seigniorage (profit from the difference between the face value of the currency and cost of production) earned from unchanged notes.

In October 2016, Fitch forecasted India’s GDP growth of 7.4 per cent for the current fiscal, adding that the growth would accelerate to eight per cent only by 2018-2019, on account of a lagged impact of monetary easing. For China, it had forecasted real GDP growth of 6.4 per cent in 2017, down from a projected 6.7 per cent in 2016, due to the impact of recent macro-prudential tightening measures targeting the housing market.

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