International ratings agency, Fitch Ratings in its latest report titled ‘Global Economic Outlook - November’ has lowered India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for current fiscal to 6.9 percent from 7.4 percent forecasted earlier, as there will be temporary disruptions to economic activity post demonetisation. The ratings agency also revised GDP growth forecast for 2017-18 and 2018-19 to 7.7 percent from 8 percent earlier. Fitch added that the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) policy rate cuts by a total 150bp since the beginning of 2015 are likely to feed through to higher GDP growth.
The report said that economic activity will be hit in the October- December quarter because of the cash crunch created by withdrawal of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes that accounted for 86 percent of the value of currency in circulation and replacing that with new Rs 500 and Rs 2000 notes. It added that gradual implementation of the structural reform agenda is expected to contribute to higher growth, as will higher real disposable income, supported by an almost 24 percent hike in civil servants’ wages. But the anticipated recovery in investment looks a bit less certain in light of ongoing weakness in the data. It added that the impact on GDP growth will increase the longer the disruption continues, and the medium-term effect of the currency withdrawal on GDP growth is uncertain, but is unlikely to be large.
On the currency ban, it said consumers do not have the cash needed to complete purchases, and there have been reports of supply chains being disrupted and farmers unable to buy seeds and fertiliser for the sowing season. Time spent queuing in banks is also likely to have affected general productivity and the impact on GDP growth will increase the longer the disruption continues. It added that a surge in low-cost funding due to the demonetisation may remove a constraint on banks that prevented lending rates from keeping pace with the RBI's policy rate cuts in recent years, although this will depend on deposits remaining in banks beyond the next few months.
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