India Ratings cuts GDP forecast by 100 bps to 6.8% for FY17

05 Dec 2016 Evaluate

Credit rating agency, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) in its latest report has lowered India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast by steep 100 basis points (bps) to 6.8 percent from 7.8 percent forecasted earlier for 2016-17, saying that the demonetisation drive will lead to an erosion of Rs 1.5 trillion this financial year. It added that the downward revision is fallout of the disruptions caused at various levels in the economy due to the de-legalisation of banknotes from November 9, which can cost economy Rs 1.5 trillion.

As per the report, the measure, which the government claims root out black money, is likely to destroy Rs 4.004 trillion worth of cash held in black money and fake currencies. It added that this constitutes a mere 12 percent of the black economy, leaving 88 percent of black money to remain in the system. Global experience has shown that the impact of such measures have been fairly short-lived as it does not attack or plug the mechanism that gives rise to black income. The rating agency pointed out that the investment will be worst affected due to the demonetisation. It said that investment, particularly private investment, which is already down and out due to various reasons, will face the brunt of the de-legalisation. Thus, it has lowered gross fixed capital formation forecast to 2 percent, down 306 bps from their earlier forecast.

The rating agency observed that with the decline in cash holdings in the hands of the public and severe restriction in the flow of new cash, consumption demand has also fallen impacting both wholesale and retail sales. Further, they expect private final consumption expenditure to grow at 7.5% this year, 89 bps lower than their earlier projection. However, the report noted that demonetisation and the government efforts to promote the digital platform for transactions will gradually increase the share of the formal sector and expand the tax base of the economy in the medium-to long-term. Also, as transactions through the digital platform increase, it will create financial and transactional history of the informal or cash dependent segment, making them bankable over the medium-to long-term.

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India Ratings cuts GDP forecast by 100 bps to 6.8% for FY17

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