International rating agency, Fitch Ratings in its latest report titled ‘2017 Outlook: Emerging Asia Sovereigns’ has said that there is scope for monetary easing in India as retail inflation is holding below the 5 percent target. Fitch said that inflation of 4.2 percent in October 2016 was below the intermediate target of 5 percent by March 2017 and within the medium-term target range of 4 percent (+/-) 2 percent.
Fitch also said that India's growth outlook remains strong on the back of infrastructure spending and the implementation of ambitious reform agenda. As per the report, some central banks in the emerging Asian economies may still find room for further monetary policy easing, given generally low consumer inflation. It said that the growth outlook is particularly strong in Bangladesh, India and the Philippines, while it added that India accounts for 14 percent of the region's gross domestic product (GDP).
The rating agency believes that domestic growth drivers include an infrastructure boost and implementation of an ambitious reform agenda in some Asian economies like India and Indonesia. However, it said that public debt levels are high in some countries including India. The report added that India and Vietnam have favourable macroeconomic prospects, but weaknesses in their public finances have deterred rating agency from taking positive rating action. Thus, it has a 'BBB-' rating for India with a ‘stable’ outlook.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Urjit Patel, will announce the policy review on December 7, 2016, amid expectations of a 0.25 percent rate cut as retail inflation is below the short-term target of 5 percent by March. The committee, in October, had cut benchmark interest rates by 0.25 percent to 6.25 percent.
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