IDS likely to help government in achieving fiscal deficit target: RBI

30 Dec 2016 Evaluate

Releasing its Financial Stability Report (FSR) December 2016, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has said that Income disclosure schemes (IDS) will help the government in achieving its fiscal deficit target of 3.5 percent for 2016-17, as additional collections will compensate for the lower revenues through disinvestment and telecom spectrum auctions.

The report said that while lower-than-expected revenues through disinvestments and telecom spectrum auctions may stretch the fiscal deficit, but the additional revenue from measures such as IDS may compensate for this. Though, report also said that the short-term impact of the measures undertaken to contain the shadow economy and tax evasion, both in terms of changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and revenues, is difficult to capture, these measures are expected to have a positive impact both on GDP and fiscal deficit in the long run.

As per the report, in the second quarter of the FY17, the current account deficit has narrowed to 0.6 percent as compared to 1.1 percent of GDP in the previous financial year. It also said that external debt, both in absolute and relative terms (as ratio to GDP), has declined and the foreign exchange reserves now cover a larger portion of total external debt and about 11 months of imports. It added that the country's external sector vulnerability indicators improved in the first quarter of the FY17. The report further said that one of the potential sources of stress in the country's balance of payments is decline in remittances. Globally, remittance flows are expected to increase only marginally in 2016 and the projections suggest a decline in remittances only in the case of India among the top five remittance receiving countries.

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