Industry body, Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (Assocham) in its latest report has said that banning of high value notes would lower growth rate due to economic slowdown in the third and fourth quarters of fiscal 2016-17. Apex industry body admitted that it was not easy to predict precisely the impact of note withdrawal with far-reaching implications and also said that the growth momentum would be restored by the normal monsoon raising agricultural growth and rural demand.
The report said that consumption, which accounts for 60 percent of the GDP, is expected to recover in the first quarter (April-June) of 2017-18 on spending from the disbursement of pay, pension and arrears following the implementation of the seventh Central Pay Commission’s award. The report also noted that demonetisation would adversely impact many sectors of the economy in the short run and hence government revenue through indirect taxes. It added that the extent to which the shortfall would be offset would depend on direct tax collection, especially tax on undeclared income. Though, in the medium term, demonetisation is expected to boost tax revenues and translate into higher capital expenditure and faster fiscal consolidation.
On the real estate sector Assocham said that the sector could bring much needed correction in the housing market as, property prices would decline in the absence of huge cash for transactions, fuelled by unaccounted income. It further said that similarly, prices of consumer goods may fall due to moderation in demand as use of cards and cheques will compensate for some purseses. On the flip side, greater formalisation of economic and financial activity will help broaden the tax base and expand usage of the financial system. It added that corporates will see economic activity decline with lower sales volumes and cash flows. Companies doing retail sales will be most affected.
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