The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, in its First Advance estimates of national income at constant (2011-12) and current prices, for the financial year 2016-17, has estimated that India’s per capita income, a gauge for measuring living standard, to cross Rs 1 lakh in 2016-17, up from Rs 93,293 in the previous fiscal. This is higher by 10.4 percent compared to Rs 93,293 during 2015-16. At constant prices, the growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 5.6 percent during 2016-17, as against 6.2 percent in the previous year.
Taking the financial, insurance, real estate and professional services into consideration, the estimated growth in GVA for this sector during 2016-17 is placed at 9.0 percent as compared to growth of 10.3 percent in 2015-16. However, the public administration and defence and other services had its GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from this sector is expected to grow by 12.8 percent as compared to growth of 6.6 percent in 2015-16. For 2016-17, manufacturing sector is estimated to grow by 7.4 percent as compared to growth of 9.3 percent in 2015-16.
According to the first advance estimates, the growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’, ‘construction’ and ‘Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting’ is estimated to be 4.1 percent, (-)1.8 percent, 6.5 percent, 2.9 percent and 6.0 percent respectively. The CSO has said that India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to slow down to 7.1 percent during 2016-17 from 7.6 percent in the previous fiscal mainly due to slump in manufacturing, mining and construction activities.
The CSO projections on national income are in line with the Reserve Bank of India’s estimates, which too had lowered the GDP growth prospects to 7.1 percent. The CSO did not figure in the impact of demonetisation, effected on November 9 and the estimates are based on sectoral data available till October. The first advance estimates of GDP have been released in accordance with the release calendar of National Accounts with an approach for compiling the advance estimates is based on benchmark-indicator method. The second advance estimate of national income for 2016-17 and the quarterly GDP estimate for the October-December 2016 quarter will be released on February 28.
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