India’s GDP likely to grow by 6.8% in FY17 due to note ban impact: FICCI

31 Jan 2017 Evaluate

Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Ficci) in its latest round of Economic Outlook Survey has said that Indian economy will grow 6.8 percent for the year 2016-17 due to a slowdown in the services and infrastructure sectors post demonetisation. It added that this is 0.5 percentage points lower than the estimate of 7.3 percent put across in the last round. It also said that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to maintain status quo in the upcoming monetary policy meet and will cut rates in the first half of fiscal year 2017-18.

Ficci survey projected the agriculture sector to witness an uptick in the FY17 on the back of good monsoon leading to support in agricultural production. However, it expects the growth in industry and services to remain moderate. It also expects the industry and services sector to grow by 5.7 percent and 8.5 percent, respectively in 2016-17. The economists in the survey have forecast the government's latest demonetisation decision to cause a slowdown in the industrial and services sector growth.

The survey has projected the country's GDP growth to recover once the remonetisation phase is complete and currency is back into circulation. According to the survey participants, the recovery in the country's investments and overall economic growth will be impacted by the government spending and private consumption which has been hit due to its demonetisation move. They believe that the government will continue the focus on additional spending especially in infrastructure projects to give a push to the economy.

On the RBI's interest rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy on February 8, a majority of participants expected the central bank to maintain status quo with regard to repo rate on account of domestic and global factors. Global happenings like US president Donald Trump announcement of policies will be critical, they said. However, economists have anticipated the accommodative stance of the RBI to continue with a probable rate cut of 25 basis points in first half of the financial year 2017-18.

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