Inflation accelerates to 7.23%; food and primary articles major dampeners

14 May 2012 Evaluate

India’s headline inflation accelerated to 7.23% in the month of April as compared to 6.89% in March 2012. The increase has come in as a bit of surprise as most expected inflation to sober down to 6.7% levels. The increase in prices is bad news for the economy especially in a situation where factory output has significantly dipped. These numbers have certainly dimmed hopes of any further rate cuts by the RBI.

A look at the sub segments reveal that the major contribution to the price increase has come in from the food and primary commodities category. Annual inflation in the primary commodities stood at 9.7% in April compared with the previous month’s 9.6%. Within the primary goods segment, food inflation has surged substantially to 10.49% again compared with 9.94% in the last month.

Inflation in the manufacturing space has also gone up to 5.12% from the 4.8% of last month. The rise can be traced back to the increase in taxes by the government by 2% in its Union Budget on March 16. The current inflation number makes it clear that the hike has been passed on to the consumers given the still robust demand scenario in the country.

Fuel inflation has been at 11.03% with LPG (Liquefied petroleum gas) growing by 15.52% (m-o-m). This segment could see a further rise in prices if the government decides to put in practice its intention of bringing fuel prices in sync with global prices.

It is noteworthy that the higher than expected inflation has come in at a time when the economy has been slowing down due to the high costs of credit as well as the global effect. Industrial output in the country has shrunk in March by a substantial -3.5% as per the IIP data. The now famous ‘policy paralysis’ has further hit business sentiment in the country.

Further, in its efforts to step up the rate of growth in the economy, RBI cut interest rates, for the first time since 2009, by an unexpected 50 basis points in its last monetary policy. However with the recent rise in inflation any further cuts look extremely unlikely.  Inflation in India has cooled from 2011, when it was above 9% for most of the year. But it is still the highest among its BRICS countries.

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