Market took note ban positively; dollar strength dampened sentiment: FinMin

22 Feb 2017 Evaluate

The Finance Ministry in its quarterly report on debt management for the quarter Oct-Dec 2016 (Q3 FY17) has said that the government’s decision on November 8, 2016, to demonetise high value currency notes which was seen positively by the market as deposits were expected to surge in banks and led to bullish market sentiment, mainly for short-end bonds. However, the report also said that the bullish market sentiment was restrained to a certain extent with US 10 year treasury yield rising to 2.15 per cent level and led to dollar strengthening adversely affecting the market.

As per the report, the mid-November of lower October inflation figures for both WPI and CPI further supported the market with yields making fresh 7-1/2 year lows. However, the market was restrained to a certain extent on hardening of US treasury yields on likely expectations of adoption of stimulative economic policies by US President Donald Trump. It also noted that during the month of November, the rupee continued to trade with volatility and breached all-time low levels, however, plenty system liquidity ensured position building across securities in the bond market.

The report stated that the rupee fell in the third week of November 2016, as dollar continued to create pressure on the Indian currency. The local currency hit an all-time intra-day low of Rs 68.86 per dollar on November 24, 2016, on concerns of demonetisation and also about a possible US Fed Reserve rate hike in the near term. Intermittently, the rupee gained on few occasions to touch a quarter high of Rs 66.43 per dollar on November 9, 2016, ahead of US presidential election result and on others occasions due to positive CPI and IIP data.

It further said that the deficit in liquidity was at an average of Rs 3,065 crore in October but turned into a surplus in November (average Rs 5.19 lakh crore) post the demonetisation decision taken by the government and increasing further in December 2016 (average Rs 7.04 lakh crore). It also noted that India’s public debt increased by 2.4 per cent to Rs 6,176,852 crore at end-December 2016 from Rs 6,033,564 crore at end-September 2016. It added that internal debt constituted 92.6 per cent of public debt as at end-December 2016, while marketable securities accounted for 83.6 per cent.

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