The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its annual report, has said that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to slow to 6.6 percent in the financial year 2016-17, then rebound to 7.2 per cent in FY 2017-18, due to transitory disruptions, mainly to private consumption, caused by the government’s demonetisation drive. The report also said that note ban would have only short term impact on the economy and in the next few years it would bounce back to its projected growth of more than eight per cent. It noted that India's economy grew at 7.6 per cent in 2015-16.
The report pointed that the post-November 8, 2016 cash shortages and payment disruptions caused by the currency exchange initiative taken by government have undermined consumption and business activity, posing a new challenge to sustaining the growth momentum. It also noted that tailwinds from a favorable monsoon, low oil prices and continued progress in resolving supply-side bottlenecks and robust consumer confidence will support near-term growth as cash shortages ease. Report further said that the country’s investment recovery is likely to remain modest and uneven across sectors, as corporate de-leveraging takes place and industrial capacity utilisation picks up.
On the external front, IMF said that despite the reduced imbalances and strengthened reserve buffers, the impact from global financial market volatility could be disruptive, including from US monetary policy normalization or weaker-than-expected global growth. The IMF suggested continued vigilance to potential domestic and external shocks and urged the authorities to further advance economic and structural reforms to address supply bottlenecks, raise potential output, create jobs and ensure inclusive growth.
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