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Indian states’ fiscal deficit to increase only marginally to 3.3% in FY18: Ind-Ra

28 Feb 2017 Evaluate

Domestic ratings agency, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) expects that the aggregate fiscal deficit of Indian states will increase only marginally to 3.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the fiscal 2017-18, though it has maintained its forecast of 3.2 percent for the fiscal 2016-17. The ratings agency also said that the aggregate state’s debt/GDP ratio may increase marginally to 24.3% in FY18 from 24% forecasted for FY17.

As per Ind-Ra estimate market borrowings of the states will increase to Rs 3.7 trillion from the 3.5 trillion in the ongoing fiscal 2016-17. However, as a percentage of GDP, states' net market borrowings is likely to moderate to 2.2 percent in FY18 from the forecast 2.3 percent for FY17. It further said that demand for petroleum products is expected to grow 9.5 percent in FY18 and states with a higher proportion of revenue from petroleum products in own tax revenue to benefit from the increase in crude oil prices. And the aggregate capital expenditure to GDP ratio of states is expected to remain stable at 3.4 percent in FY18, which is the same as in FY16 and FY17.

For the expenditure, Ind-Ra expects the aggregate capital expenditure/GDP ratio of states to remain stable at 3.4% in FY18, same as in FY16 and FY17 (FY15: 2.5%). Despite a salary revision, it expects select committed expenditure (in the form of salary, pension and interest payments)/current expenditure ratio to remain stable in FY18. Talking on the crucial indirect tax reform Goods and Services Tax, the agency said it expects an implementation by July 2017 and added that the proposed compensation of Rs 500 billion by the central government to state governments to cover revenue losses post tax implementation will be sufficient.

It further said that the central government is evaluating the report of the N. K. Singh panel on Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM), which allows the fiscal deficit of the central government to be increased by 0.5% of GDP. And added that once the report is accepted, states would also make suitable changes in the fiscal deficit targets specified under their FRBM Acts.

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Indian states’ fiscal deficit to increase only marginally to 3.3% in FY18: Ind-Ra

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