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Higher oil, gold imports likely to widen India’s CAD to $30 bn in FY18: ICRA

10 Mar 2017 Evaluate

Domestic rating agency, ICRA in its latest report has said that higher oil and gold imports are likely to widen the current account deficit (CAD) to $30 billion or 1.2 percent of GDP in the fiscal 2017-18 from $20 billion or 0.9 percent of GDP in 2017, arresting the trend of moderation recorded for four consecutive years since fiscal 2014.  

According to the report, merchandise exports is likely to rise by 5-6 percent in 2017-18, partly led by higher value of commodity-intensive exports, global trends do not augur well for a significant improvement in the services trade surplus and remittances in FY18. It further said that since 2014, a combination of lower crude prices and a dip in gold imports had helped the country to absorb the impact of a decline in exports, services trade surplus or remittances. Though, it said that in the next financial year this cushion would not be available.

In the wake of the oil cartel OPEC’s decision to jack up crude prices by cutting production, the agency expects that the average crude oil price to go up to $55 per barrel in next financial year from $48 in 2017.  It also said that import volumes will rise 7 percent on the back of the domestic demand. It noted that with the expected rise in prices, the overall oil imports to increase 24 percent in fiscal 2018. As per the report, imports of fertilisers and fertiliser raw materials are likely to increase marginally to $5.4 billion in fiscal 2018 from $5.3 billion in 2017, while the cool-off in prices and decline in volumes will lead to a $1 billion decline in coal imports to $13.6 billion next fiscal.




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