Minister of State for Finance Arjun Ram Meghwal has said that it is not possible to assess the impact of note ban on India’s gross domestic product (GDP) as the economic development of a country depends on a number of factors including structural, external, fiscal and monetary factors. He also said that the projection for economic development for the FY 2016-17 made by many international and domestic agencies after note ban were in general lower than their corresponding projection prior to note ban.
Meghwal has said that as per the second advance estimates released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) on February 28 based mostly on information for the first nine to ten months of 2016-17, growth rate of GDP at constant market prices for the current financial year 2016-17 is projected to be at 7.1 per cent. He also pointed out that the CSO had estimated the same growth rate in the first advance estimates released on January 6 based mostly on the information for the first seven to eight months of the current fiscal.
Arjun Ram Meghwal further highlighted that as per the quarterly estimates released by the CSO, the growth of GDP at constant (2011-12) market price was 7.2 per cent, 7.4 per cent and 7 per cent, respectively, during the first, second, and third quarters of the financial year 2016-17. He also noted that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook in October 2016 had projected India's growth for 2016-17 at 7.6 per cent, which was revised to 6.6 per cent in January 2017 Update. He added that the other organisations such as the World Bank and a number of credit rating agencies also reduced their GDP growth projections for 2016-17 post note ban.