Production of foodgrains likely to increase by 0.6% this fiscal: CMIE

21 May 2012 Evaluate

The agricultural sector is expected to do marginally well in the current fiscal given the expectations of a normal monsoon. The production of foodgrains is expected to increase by 0.6% due to higher production of wheat, rice and coarse grains whereas non food crops like cotton and sugarcane are expected to fall to levels lower than the last year, as per the economic think tank Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE).

The production of rice is expected to increase to 100 million tonnes(mt) in the current fiscal whereas wheat production is estimated to be at 87.3 mt. Coarse foodgrains will also see a growth in production by 0.7% to 42.3 mt in 2012-13. Pulses on the other hand have seen a decline in production due to a fall in acreage in 2011-12 and it is estimated that their production will decline to 17.5 mt, falling by 3.7%.

Production of non food crops on the other hand will see a decline in their production by 1.6% in 2012-13. This will largely be on the back of fall in production of sugarcane and cotton, which had seen a steep increase in acreage in the last year.

Cotton which had seen an increase in production of 6% last year to 35 million bales is set for a decline as it is expected that last year’s excess production combined with weak demand and hence volatile prices will deter farmers from sowing the fibre. It is predicted that cotton production will decrease by 7.8% to 32.2 million bales in 2012-13. Sugarcane cultivation has seen a growth in the last kharif season as acreage increased by 5% to 46.4 lakh hectares by April 27, 2012. However going forward, it is expected that production will slow down.

As far as oil seeds are concerned, production is expected to grow by 3% in FY’13. Higher production of groundnuts, safflower and sunflower seeds is expected to drive the growth. Groundnut had seen a decline in production in 2011-12 due farmers shifting to other crops. It has been estimated that the production of groundnuts has declined by over 17% to 6.9 mt in the last fiscal.

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