Morgan Stanley lowers India’s GDP growth estimate to 6.3% for FY’13

22 May 2012 Evaluate

Morgan Stanley has cut India’s growth forecast for FY’13 to 6.3% and has revised the estimates for FY’14 to 6.9%. The revision has come in as it believes that India is going through a bad mix of a high fiscal deficit and an expansionary policy which is increasing consumption without augmenting private investment.  It is also of the view that the RBI may cut the repo rate by an additional 100 bps by March 2013.

The downgrade comes amidst comments from the Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission Montek Singh Ahluwalia, that it may be difficult for India to achieve its targeted growth of 7.5% in this fiscal, although not impossible. In his view the falling rupee and high inflation are expected to affect GDP growth in the country. Further the last quarter has not shown any robustness and it remains to be seen how the first quarter of the current fiscal will fare.

India has been facing stiff inflationary pressures since the last fiscal. The current depreciation in the rupee has further added to its woes. The government expects the GDP to grow by 7.5% in the current fiscal however doubts about the figure have started surfacing.

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