Easing concerns over farm and economic growth in the country, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country's national weather forecaster, has said that India would receive 'normal' monsoon, with a fair distribution of rainfall across major parts of country. It added that seasonal monsoon rainfall is likely to be 96% of the long period average (LPA), which is at the lower end of the normal range (96-104%), with a model error of plus or minus 5 percent. Though, it did not give the probability of below normal rainfall. Besides, the last year monsoon rainfall was 97%.
IMD has assured that India is in for a normal monsoon season this year which will be good for agriculture and the economy of the country. It further added that the chances of an El Nino (which negatively affects monsoon rainfall in India) developing later in the year had fallen from over 50% to about 40% in April. Additionally, an Ocean Dipole (IOD) development over the equatorial Indian Ocean could have a positive impact on rainfall in India. Thus, there is a 38% probability of going beyond 96% and moving towards near normal (100%).
El Nino is a complex set of weather cycles that occur over the Pacific Ocean and affect climate patterns worldwide. The El Nino is characterised by warm surface temperatures over the Eastern Pacific Ocean, which results in heavy rain in South America and drier conditions over South and South East Asia and Australia. As per the IMD parameter rainfall less than 90% of the LPA is considered as deficient, between 90-96% below normal, between 96-104% normal, 104-110% above normal and above 110% of LPA is considered as excess.
Meanwhile, IMD will issue the update forecasts in early June, 2017 as a part of the second stage long range forecast of monsoon rainfall. Along with the update forecast, separate forecasts for the monthly (July and August) rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over various geographical regions of India will also be issued.
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