India likely to grow by 7.1% in 2012 and by 7.7% in 2013: OECD

23 May 2012 Evaluate

India is expected to grow by 7.1% in 2012 and by 7.7% in 2013, as per the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The Paris based think tank comes out with estimates of GDP growth bi annually and in its November publication it had pegged India’s growth in 2012 at 8.1%. The current number is a slight downgrade from November.

As per the OECD, growth in India will pick up due to a cyclical upturn in investment, stronger external demand and a loose monetary policy. The lowering of interest rates by the RBI will bring about delayed effects by the year end and into the next year and improve growth.

The organistaion has however, cautioned that there will be little room for further rate cuts given the inflationary pressures. It has advised that India should give priority to fiscal consolidation as it is estimated at a high rate of 8% of GDP. Such a number will fuel inflation and put pressure on the current account deficit, if left untamed. This will ‘weaken investment sentiment and result in softer near-term growth and an erosion of long-run prospects’.

The think tank is more optimistic about India’s long term prospects and has stated that India will take over China by 2020. On a global level, the Organisation has cautioned that it is important to tame the euro-zone crisis else it will affect the recovery of the world. Also it has mentioned that it still cannot be stated that the global crisis that started with the US, five years back is behind us.

OECD’s estimates have come in at a time when the Indian economy has recently seen downgrades and estimates of slower GDP growth from Standard and Poor’s and Morgan Stanley. S&P downgraded the outlook on the Indian economy from a BBB stable to BBB negative. Morgan and Stanley also stated that it expects India's growth to drop to 6.3% in 2012 and increase to only 6.8% in the year after.

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