The domestic rating agency, ICRA in its latest report has said that the current surge of foreign portfolio investors’ (FPIs) investments into the domestic debt market is unlikely to sustain through the rest of financial year 2018, mainly due to the factors such as a likely compression of the spreads, geopolitical tension and the sharp increase in the rupee.
Report also highlighted that, after reporting outflows of $7.1 billion during October 2016-January 2017, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have invested $ 7.4 billion in the Indian debt market since February 2017. It also noted that inflows stood at $3.9 billion in the month of March, the highest monthly tally since December 2011. Adding further, it said that this was mainly supported by factors such as a widening of the spreads between 10-year US and domestic G-secs yields, the receding impact of the government’s demonetization move on economic activity and investor sentiment, as well as policy reforms including the passage of all the GST laws.
ICRA further said that aggregate FPI utilization of debt cap increased from 64.5% in January to 72.1% in March, and further to 74.7% in April, despite the planned rise in the limits for government securities as well as state development loans. However, the report also warned that this trend of large monthly FPI inflows into the debt markets is unlikely to sustain in coming months.
Based on the expected rate actions by the Reserve Bank of India and US Fed, it expects the spread between the US and Indian yields to decline, reducing the attractiveness of holding Indian debt for FPIs. It noted that this could lead to lower monthly inflows relative to the trend seen in the recent months, as well as sporadic outflows of FII investments in domestic debt.
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