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Fitch retains ‘BBB-’ ratings with stable outlook for India; pegs real GDP at 7.7% in FY17

03 May 2017 Evaluate

Citing weak fiscal position and difficult business environment, global ratings agency, Fitch Ratings has retained ‘BBB-’ ratings - the lowest investment grade - with a stable outlook for India. The agency forecast real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to accelerate to 7.7% in both 2016-17 and 2017-18, compared with 7.1% in 2015-16. It also expects India’s current-account balance to narrow to -0.9% in FY17, and foreign reserves to build up to 8.4 months of current external payments.

The ratings agency indicated that its India’s sovereign ratings balance a strong medium-term growth outlook and favourable external balances with a weak fiscal position and difficult business environment. However, the business environment is likely to gradually improve with the implementation and continued broadening of the structural reform agenda. It said that the stable outlook reflects the assessment that upside and downside risks to the ratings are broadly balanced.

It also noted that it’s “not likely” that the Indian government’s budgeted Rs 70,000-crore capital injection into public-sector banks, struggling with huge stressed assets, in the four years through 2018-19 will be sufficient. “India is not immune to external shocks, but the country’s strong external finances make it less vulnerable than many of its peers, but weak public finances continue to constrain India’s ratings.

Fitch expects structural reforms to increase growth, along with higher real disposable income supported by implementation of the seventh pay commission recommendations and an average monsoon. It further added that the impact of the reform programme on investment and real GDP growth will depend on how it is implemented and the extent to which government continues its strong drive to improve the still-weak business environment.


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