The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has said that the Indian economy will grow 7.4 percent in the fiscal year 2017-18 and 7.6 percent in fiscal year 2018-19, with the help of bankruptcy and GST laws, creating more business friendly environment.
The multilateral agency's Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada said over 7 percent growth rate is high if one compare it to other emerging market economies and also China. Behind this is cyclical factor, improved terms of trade. The Indian government adopted new bankruptcy law that improved the business enabling environment and that is the short-term and medium-term factor behind the gross acceleration in India. He added that the bankruptcy law and the GST will help in creating a better business enabling environment, which seems to be a factor behind this gross acceleration of India.
On strengthening rupee hitting exports, he said that stronger rupee is unlikely to impact India’s export competitiveness and growth momentum and Asian economies, including India, may not be adversely affected by noises of protectionism in the developed countries due to rising intra-Asian trade. He further said the rupee's strengthening should not be seen in isolation since market environment is another determinant of exports.
Talking about demonetisation of old 500 and 1,000 rupee notes that took out 86 per cent of the currency in circulation, he said that the move obviously generated short-term decline in cash-based transactions and consumer sentiment. But according to their data analysis, this possible negative impact of demonetisation was only short-lived and we still see a medium-term growth acceleration of the Indian economy.
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