Considering reduced likelihood of El-Nino, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country's national weather forecaster, has said that the country is likely to receive above average monsoon rainfall this year and noted that it could reach 100 per cent of the long period average (LPA) instead of 96 percent of the LPA as predicted in its earlier forecast on April 18, 2017.
IMD said that it had earlier assessed 96 per cent based on the climatological conditions up to March but things have changed for good since then. Now, conditions are becoming favourable for an improvement over April 18 estimate. It has further stated that Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology too downgraded the occurence of El-Nino this year and they also expect that prospects of monsoon could improve slightly.
IMD Director General K J Ramesh said the recent development on El-Nino indicates that the monsoon could be normal this year and it could reach 100 per cent of the LPA. He said that Indian Ocean dipole, or IOD phenomenon, which counters an El Nino weather event, looks favourable for monsoon rains this year.
India defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 percent and 104 percent of the 50-year average and the monsoon delivers about 70 percent of the county's annual rainfall, critical for growing crops such as rice, cane, corn, cotton and soybeans because nearly half of the country's farmland lacks irrigation. Anything between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA is considered as “normal”. Anything under 96 per cent is considered as “below normal” and 104-110 per cent of the LPA as “above normal”.
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