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India’s GDP to grow marginally to 7.1% in Q4 of FY17: ICRA

26 May 2017 Evaluate

Indian economy is expected to rise marginally in the fourth quarter (Q4) of financial year (FY) 2017. Credit rating agency, ICRA in its latest report has said that the gross domestic product (GDP) and gross value added (GVA) of the country may expand to 7.1 per cent and 6.9 per cent, respectively during Q4 of FY17, up from the preceding quarter’s estimates of 7 per cent and 6.6 per cent, respectively.

The rating agency though said that the gradual remonetisation would result in some improvement in Q4 estimates relative to Q3 FY2017. It noted that when compared on a year-on-year basis, the pace of growth of GDP and GVA in Q4 is expected to be slower to Q4 FY2016 of 8.4 percent and 8.1 percent, respectively. The report further said that the construction sector will contract by 1 per cent on a GVA basis due to the noteban.

The agency said that the 6.9 per cent GVA growth for the quarter rests on a 8.8 per cent Y-o-Y growth in services, and a moderate rise of 5.4 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively, in industry and agriculture, forestry and fishing. It expects healthy growth in service sector on the back of double-digit rise in sub-sectors like air cargo traffic, bank deposits, corporate bonds, commercial paper and Centre’s non-interest non-subsidy revenue expenditure.

It also said that the new Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) series, could lead to revisions in GDP and GVA levels and growth rates from FY2013 onward could undergo revisions, at constant prices, stating that the growth rate for FY17 will differ materially from the second advance estimates released by the CSO in February 2017.

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