Markets to make a soft-to-cautious start on sluggish regional cues

The Indian markets extended their rally mood in the last session and the benchmarks scaled their fresh record highs. Today, the start is likely to be a bit cautious tailing the sluggishness in the regional peers. Traders will be eyeing the monsoon movement, as the southwest monsoon is most likely to hit the Kerala coast and northeast India simultaneously on Tuesday, the onset date forecast by the India Meteorological Department earlier this month. Market will be getting some support with World Bank’s expectation that India, the fastest growing major economy in the world, will grow at 7.2 per cent in the current fiscal and further up to 7.7 per cent by 2019-20 on strong fundamentals, reform momentum and improving investment scenario. It noted that demonetisation in November 2016 caused a slight disruption to India’s growth recovery, following a favourable monsoon last fiscal, but things seem to be bettering. Meanwhile, the Central Board of Excise and Customs Chairperson Vanaja Sarna has said that decision on revising the tax rates fixed on various goods and services has been left to the discretion of the GST Council. There will be lots of earnings and earnings reaction to keep the markets in action today.

The US markets remained closed in last session, unable to give any cues to the other global markets. The Asian markets have made a mixed start and some of the indices in the region are trading lower by about half a percent after leaders of the G7 group of rich nations failed to make progress on narrowing differences on climate change and North Korea fired another missile off its east coast. Japanese market was down as the yen strengthened against the dollar.

Back home, Indian equity indices carried forward their northbound journey for yet another session on Monday, and ended at fresh closing highs, while the midcap and smallcap indices snapped two-session long rally to finish lower. Most of the investors remained on the sidelines and refrained from any buying activity, keeping a close tab on the arrival of monsoon rains, which is expected to hit the southern Kerala coast by the end of the month. The June-September southwest monsoon is critical for the country's agriculture because a considerable part of the country's farmland is dependent on the rains for irrigation. On the macro front, the government will announce data on Q4 March 2017 gross domestic product (GDP) on May 31, 2017. Sentiments remained optimistic with the Employees Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) approving hike in investment limit in exchange traded funds (ETFs) to 15%, from the existing 10%. The decision was taken during the meeting of the Central Board of Trustees (CBT) here on Saturday. Some support also came with the report that foreign investors have pumped in nearly $4 billion in the country’s capital market so far this month due to finalization of GST rates for bulk of the items and stable outlook for the rupee. According to latest depository data, FPIs invested a net Rs 9,007 crore in equities during May 2-26, while they poured Rs 15,769 crore in the debt markets during the period under review, translating into a net inflow of Rs 24,776 crore ($3.85 billion). Meanwhile, banking stocks came under pressure after Arun Jaitley said that poor performance by private investors and banks still remains a challenge for the Indian economy. He also said the banks have to recover their bad loans to boost private investment, as domestic private investment needs to pick up. Further, Healthcare index (BSE) witnessed a sharp drag, after Sun Pharmaceutical Industries fell as much as 13.2% to a near four-year low after the company on Friday reported a 14% fall in March-quarter profit. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 81.07 points or 0.26% to 31109.28, while the CNX Nifty was up by 9.80 points or 0.10% to 9,604.90.