Industrial production to accelerate to 6.9% in FY13: CMIE

30 May 2012 Evaluate

Industrial production is expected to accelerate to 6.9% in FY13 as compared to the projected 3.9% in FY12, as per the economic think tank Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). The acceleration is expected to be on account of the easing of supply side constraints especially an increase in the output of mining sector and also an increase in the generation of electricity. The manufacturing sector is too expected to do substantially better.

The mining sector will show good recovery and will pull up the overall industrial production in FY13. Output in mined products is expected to grow by 5.5% in FY13, after falling by 2% in the preceding year. Coal, which accounts for one third of the mined products output is expected to grow by a healthy 8% on the back of fresh capacity additions. ONGC’s capacity addition is expected to increase production of crude oil as well as natural gas. Crude oil is expected to grow by 6.5% whereas natural gas might see a production increase of 3% as compared to 1% and -9% respectively in FY12.

Power generation is also expected to grow by 13.2% in FY13 as compared to 8% in FY12. Improvement in the availability of coal and capacity additions will push up the generation of thermal power to 14%. This assumes importance as thermal power accounts for 80% of the country’s total power production. Generation of nuclear power may rise by 17.2%.

The manufacturing sector is also expected to show good growth on the back of increase in purchasing power of both urban as well as rural sector and an improvement in the availability of raw materials. Substantial capacity additions are also hinting towards a future growth in the sector. It is expected that the manufacturing will grow by 5.8% in FY13 as compared to 3.9% in FY12. This acceleration is expected to be fuelled by a 10% growth in automobiles and basic metals industries.

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