The Indian economy is likely to pick up pace in the next two fiscal years. The Credit rating agency, Fitch Ratings in its latest report ‘Global Economic Outlook’ has forecasted the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country to grow at 7.4 per cent this year and 7.6 per cent in the next fiscal year buoyed by rising public spending on infrastructure. The rating agency added that the investment in India is also expected to witness gradual rise owing to transmission of supportive monetary policy along with the government’s various structural reforms.
The report further said that the upcoming Goods & Services Tax (GST) regime will facilitate trade within India and reduce transaction costs. However, the rating agency also pointed that the demonetization move did have a material impact on spending and its lagged effect on the economy is quite puzzling and the effects would be expected to be quite rapidly felt - but partly reflects the challenges of measuring spending in an economy with a large informal sector."
Moreover, Fitch Ratings predicted that the consumer price index (CPI) Inflation would rise as the current low food price effect will fade, but expecting to remain firmly within the central bank’s target range. It also said that investment dipped into negative territory (-2.1 per cent). This partly reflected poor construction activity, which fell by 3.7 per cent, an unprecedentedly low level in recent years and added that investment has been persistently weak in recent years.
Talking about other nations, the rating agency said that global economic growth is expected to rise from 2.5 percent last year to 2.9 percent in 2017 and 3.1 percent in 2018, the highest rate since 2010. Besides, it stated that the current year’s faster growth reflects a synchronised improvement across both advanced and emerging market economies, while pointing that this improving global picture implies an evolving monetary policy outlook.
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