Sharper than expected 50 bps rate hike yank bond yields

26 Jul 2011 Evaluate

Pre RBI’s rates hike scenario:

Bond yields edged higher on Tuesday as traders pared positions ahead of an expected rate hike by the central bank at its crucial monetary policy review later in the day amidst higher U.S. yields also weighing on sentiment.

The central bank said on Monday high inflation warrants continued tight monetary policy, despite rising growth risks, reinforcing expectations that it will increase interest rates by a quarter point on Tuesday. Oil prices held steady as President Barack Obama urged Republican and Democratic leaders to reach a fair compromise on raising the debt ceiling to avoid the first default in the history of the U.S.

On the global front, U.S. Treasuries prices fell on Monday as the absence of a deal to lift the federal debt ceiling stoked fears of a U.S. default, keeping investors on edge and casting a cloud over the week's debt auctions.

The yields on 10-year benchmark 7.80% - 2021 rose by 3 basis points at 8.32% from its previous close of 8.29% on Monday. 

The benchmark five-year interest rate swaps were up 7 basis points at 7.58% from its previous close of 7.65% on Thursday.

The Government of India has announce the sale of three dated securities for Rs 12,000 crore on July 29, 2011, including the sale (re-issue) of (i) “7.83 percent Government Stock 2018” for a notified amount of  Rs 3,000 crore (nominal), (ii) “7.80 percent Government Stock 2021” for a notified amount of  Rs 6,000 crore (nominal) and (iii) “8.30 percent Government Stock 2040” for a notified amount of  Rs 3,000 crore (nominal) through price based auctions. The auctions that will be conducted using uniform price method will be conducted on July 29, 2011 (Friday).

The Reserve Bank of India has announced the auction of 364-day and 91-day Government of India Treasury Bills for notified amount of Rs 3,000 crore and Rs 7,000 crore respectively. The auction will be conducted on July 27, 2011 using 'Multiple Price Auction' method.

Post RBI’s rates hike scenario:

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) furthering its hawkish stance against the rampant inflation increased the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by 50 basis points from 7.5% to 8.0% with immediate effect. The reverse repo rate under the LAF, determined with a spread of 100 basis points below the repo rate, automatically adjusted to 7.0% from 6.50% with immediate effect. The rate increase is its 11th since March 2010, making the RBI one of the most aggressive inflation fighters among central banks.

The yields on 10-year benchmark 7.80% - 2021 rose by 11 basis points at 8.40% from its previous close of 8.29% on Monday.

The benchmark five-year interest rate swaps were up 15 basis points at 7.66% from its previous close of 7.65% on Monday.

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