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India Inc’s top-line to grow 7% in Q1FY18; GST may cap growth: CRISIL

10 Jul 2017 Evaluate

With pickup in consumption, the ratings agency CRISIL in its latest report has said that the aggregate top-line of listed companies, excluding banking, financial services and oil, are likely to grow 7% in the first quarter of fiscal year 2017-18. But it also highlighted that difficulties in the export-linked sectors and the Goods and Services Tax (GST) introduction may cap the same, pulling down the margins by 1.2% on the pre-tax level to 20.4%. It added that there could be demand and supply disruptions in the short-term due to GST, though from a long-term perspective, the new regime will lead to efficiency gains and greater tax compliance.

In its ‘Q1 FY18 Results Outlook,’ CRISIL said that the growth in the sectors, accounting for 61% of the market capitalisation of companies listed on the National Stock Exchange, was hemmed in by factors such as a rise in input costs, an appreciating rupee and output cuts ahead of the GST regime rollout from July 1. The report mostly held responsible the introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) from July 1 for the poor revenue growth, saying revenue growth across sectors could have been higher but for the new tax regime, which led to a lot of companies going slow on sales.

The report added that consumption-driven sectors, including automobiles, airlines, FMCG and retail, but excluding telecom, are estimated to have grown at a healthy pace of 10-11%. Terming the likely spike in revenues as a heartening trend, CRISIL said the same sectors were affected by the note-ban and growth had fallen to 4-7% levels in the second half of the last fiscal. However, it is the export-linked sectors like information technology which is a cause of worry, as growth is expected to come down to 3% from the double-digit levels earlier.

As per the report, a rise in key commodity prices such as crude oil, steel, aluminium and cement is expected to have pared the profitability of end-user sectors such as automobiles, petrochemicals, housing and tyres by 1.30%, 2.30%, 3.30% and 4.70%, respectively. It added that for the pharma sector, the margin contraction can be much higher at 5.50% on pricing pressure and lack of exclusivity period for generic drugs, but IT companies will manage to hold on to the spreads on a rise in the share of high-margin digital services. The report observed an improvement in the outlook for earnings for FY18, as it expects rural demand to pick up on the back of favourable monsoons, farm loan waivers and higher MSP for crops. It however said that the all important revival in private investment activity is still a few quarters away.

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India Inc’s top-line to grow 7% in Q1FY18; GST may cap growth: CRISIL

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