Industrial growth likely to witness slow expansion in Q1 of 2012-13: CII

04 Jun 2012 Evaluate

The depreciation of rupee, high levels of inflation and a substantial fiscal deficit are expected to pull down growth in most sectors of the economy in the April-June quarter, says a survey by the Confederation of India Industries (CII). The survey which was conducted across 114 sectors involving 35,000 companies found that almost all sectors of the economy expect deceleration in the first quarter of the current fiscal.  

Sectors like electronic motors, earthmoving and construction equipment, rubber goods, tyres and crude are all expected to register a low growth in the range of 0 to 10%. The share of such sectors has moved up from 42.2% in Q1 of 2011 to 52.6% in the Q1 of 2013.

Sectors expected to have negative growth rate are textile machinery, transformer and pumps and their share too is expected to go up from 5.2% in Q1 2011 to 15.7% in Q1 2013. Sectors such as automobile, energy meters, ball and roller bearings and scooters are expected to experience growth rates in the range of 10-20% but their share in the overall growth scenario too is expected to decrease to 24.5% in the quarter under review from 31.8% in the like period of the previous financial year. Sectors foreseen to witness excellent growth rate i.e. in the range of more than 20% include LCD, LED, and microwave ovens.

As per the survey, slowdown in growth is due to the rate cuts made by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its attempt to control inflation and the global slowdown. Hence it has been suggested that the government and the RBI come up with a concrete recovery plan to put the economy back on the path of growth.

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