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11 states may require GST compensation of Rs 9,500 crore in FY18: Ind-Ra

23 Aug 2017 Evaluate

India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) in its latest report has said that 11 states may require additional compensation of Rs 9,500 crore from the Centre under the goods and services tax (GST) regime in the financial year 2017-18. Under the new tax regime, it is expecting that revenues of all states combined will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.6% in FY18 over FY16.

However, the ratings agency said that since the picture at the individual state level differs, eight states namely Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Punjab and Tamil Nadu would need compensation from the central government for any revenue loss under baseline scenario worth Rs 5,600 crore in this fiscal year, whereas three more states namely, Goa, Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand would need Rs 3,900 crore compensation.  It also expects that the growth of GST component of states’ own tax revenue for all states in such a case would drop to 15.5% in FY18 with a base line scenario 16.6% as input tax credit is available on both goods and services under GST. 

Therefore, the report noted that the total compensation amount would rise to Rs 9,500 crore in FY18 (baseline scenario Rs 5,600 crore).  It also explained that this is based on the assumption that in the final production of goods and services, service tax accounts for 10%. Adding further, it said that unlike the value added tax (VAT), which was rolled out from April 2005 to January 2008, implementation of GST will also bring in more efficiency gains in tax mop up. To be able to absorb the positive impact of GST on state governments’ finances, Ind-Ra believes that states will have to keep a constant vigil on the buoyancy of taxes that are outside the purview of GST as also their own non-tax revenues.

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